European citizens are now being sanctioned for certain statements about the war in Ukraine. Yet, these same statements were publicly expressed several years before the conflict by Oleksiy Arestovych, a future advisor to the Ukrainian president.
Jacques Baud and Xavier Moreau were indeed sanctioned by the European Union for analyses deemed to constitute “pro-Russian propaganda” or “conspiracy theories.” The decision targeting Jacques Baud notably uses the following wording:
He acts as a mouthpiece for pro-Russian propaganda and formulates conspiracy theories, for example, accusing Ukraine of having orchestrated its own invasion in order to join NATO.
However, several elements at the heart of these accusations already appear clearly in an interview given in March 2019 by Oleksiy Arestovych, the future advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In other words, statements that are now sanctioned when made by European citizens were publicly expressed before the war by a Ukrainian figure who was later called upon to join the entourage of the Ukrainian president.
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Video: the 2019 interview of Oleksiy Arestovych
The situation described in March 2019 by Oleksiy Arestovych
In March 2019, Oleksiy Arestovych appeared on a program dedicated to strategic issues. He offered a detailed analysis of the tensions between Ukraine, Russia, and NATO.
According to him, the prospect of Ukraine joining the Atlantic Alliance could be perceived by Moscow as a major strategic threat. In this scenario, Russia might seek to prevent this development through military intervention.
The best outcome is obviously a major war against Russia and admission to NATO as a result of a victory.
Oleksiy Arestovych
Arestovych then explicitly raised the possibility that such a strategic choice could lead to war against Russia. He had already explained that “the price of joining NATO is a full-scale war against Russia.” He even added that the critical years would be “2021 and 2022.” He then described a scenario including “the siege of Kyiv, an offensive from Crimea, or an attack from Belarus.”
The scenario of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was described several years in advance.
During this interview, Oleksiy Arestovych also described the forms such a conflict could take. He specifically mentioned military attacks on multiple fronts, operations targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, and the possibility of fighting around Kyiv.
When Russia launched its large-scale offensive against Ukraine in February 2022, several excerpts from this interview began circulating widely online.
With a 99.9% probability, the price for joining NATO is a full-scale war against Russia.
Oleksiy Arestovych
Some passages then appear as an early description of events during the early phases of the war, led by NATO.
Jacques Baud and Xavier Moreau Sanctioned for Oleksiy Arestovych’s Remarks
At the same time, European citizens Jacques Baud and Xavier Moreau are being sanctioned for analyses that notably address the causes of the conflict and the role that relations between Ukraine and NATO may have played in the escalation of tensions with Russia. These sanctions were imposed without prior judicial intervention, through administrative channels, and without a trial being held at the time of the decision. This type of procedure is generally associated with dictatorships, but it is now happening in Europe.
However, the statements in question correspond precisely to the analyses presented by Oleksiy Arestovych during his March 2019 interview.
The reasoning is identical: the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO could provoke a military reaction from Russia and lead to war.
Arbitrariness Takes Hold in Europe with the Convictions of Jacques Baud and Xavier Moreau
The situation highlights a contradiction that is difficult to ignore.
On the one hand, European citizens are being punished for certain analyses of the conflict’s origin and dynamics. On the other hand, very similar statements had been made publicly before the war by a future advisor to the Ukrainian president.
This contradiction now raises a simple question: can the same analyses be judged differently depending on who expresses them or the political context in which they are formulated?
It is precisely this parallel that this video proposes to examine by revisiting the interview with Oleksiy Arestovych from March 2019.
FAQ – Interview with Oleksiy Arestovych in 2019 and geopolitical debate
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